Buenas noticias para Juntos por el Cambio y Javier Milei
En medio de la crisis, nueva encuesta electoral .
Es un estudio de Opina Argentina. Los datos por espacio, y pisos y techos de los candidatos.
El relevamiento es previo, pero los números se conocieron mientras se desarrolló (desarrolla) la crisis política más fuerte desde que asumió el Frente de Todos. En medio del tembladeral por la renuncia de Martín Guzmán como ministro de Economía y su reemplazo por Silvina Batakis, una nueva encuesta electoral con dos conclusiones centrales: amplía la ventaja Juntos por el Cambio y paró de caer Javier Milei.
El estudio es de Opina Argentina, una consultora a cargo de Facundo Nejamkis, un ex funcionario de Cristina Kirchner que hace años trabaja con esta firma y hoy tiene clientes a ambos lados de la grieta. Sus relevamientos, le consta a este diario, circulan (entre otros lugares) en Casa de Gobierno y en la sede porteña de Uspallata.
A fines de junio, Opina Argentina hizo su encuesta mensual y nacional, de 1.000 casos, con +/- 3% de margen de error. Y, como ocurre habitualmente, publicó sus datos de coyuntura económica y política, más su termómetro para el 2023.
El contexto general
Antes de entrar en el terreno electoral, el informe desgrana algunas conclusiones que confirman el escenario general complejo para el oficialismo. Lo dice así:
«En este nuevo informe de Opina Argentina podemos observar la persistencia del mal humor social respecto de la marcha de la economía. De forma previsible esto se refleja en la evaluación de la coyuntura política».
«De forma sintética podemos afirmar que el escepticismo y desencanto alcanza a dos tercios de los argentinos. Este valor se expresa de forma coincidente entre quienes adjudican al actual gobierno la responsabilidad sobre los pesares económicos de la población».
«En este marco, la inflación presenta un nuevo aumento como la principal preocupación de la ciudadanía llegando al 39% de respuestas. Tengamos en cuenta que este registro en febrero era del 26%».
«La única variable que presenta una sutil diferencia es la que refiere a la expectativa sobre el futuro económico personal. Allí el 51% cree que estará peor en el próximo año, mientras que un 45% cree que estará igual o mejor».
«La valoración social de los dirigentes políticos mantiene valores similares al período de mayo. Las principales figuras de Juntos obtienen valores superiores al 40%, siendo Horacio Rodriguez Larreta el más valorado con el 54%. Por su parte, Javier Milei contiene un 38% de opiniones favorables, lo que significa una caída de 4 puntos porcentuales con respecto a la medición del mes anterior».
«Por su parte, los dirigentes oficialistas están alineados en un mismo rango de valoración positiva. Aunque con diversas distribuciones entre muy y algo positivas, todos suman 26% de evaluación aprobatoria. Lo que hace unos años se presumía como un tercio de apoyos duros kirchneristas, hoy parece reducirse a un cuarto de los mismos».
Los números electorales
Tras mostrar una nueva caída en imagen, Milei consigue una buena noticia, o al menos un consuelo, cuando se mide intención de voto. En la pregunta por espacio, que lo menciona como referente junto a José Luis Espert entre los libertarios, se sostiene en valiosos 18 puntos.
El mapa de esta parte de la encuesta se completa con Juntos por el Cambio manteniendo el liderazgo, con 34 puntos, seguida por el oficialismo con 26. Completan el Frente de Izquierda con 5%, indecisos 11%, otro 4% y blanco 3%.
Respecto a la medición de mayo, la principal alianza opositora amplia la ventaja de 3 a 8 puntos.
Pero además, el sondeo incluye una tabla de lo que se conoce como pisos y techos electorales. Cuánta gente votaría seguro a un candidato (piso), cuánta podría hacerlo (sumado a lo anterior conforman el techo) y cuánta no lo haría bajo ninguna circunstancia (rechazo).
Cuando se observa el gráfico, prima el rojo, el rechazo, lo que ratifica el clima adverso de la opinión pública hacia su clase política. Alberto Fernández y Cristina Kirchner, por ejemplo, llegan a un 67% de «nunca lo votaría». Y Daniel Scioli, flamante ministro y con aspiraciones para el año próximo, supera los 70 puntos en este rubro.
En cuanto al piso, el «seguro lo votaría», la mejor es Patricia Bullrich, con 22%. La siguen Horacio Rodríguez Larreta y Mauricio Macri, con 17%; y Cristina y Milei, con 16%.
Respecto al techo, cuando se suma el «podría votarlo», crece Larreta a 52 puntos, y vienen detrás Bullrich (47) y Macri (44). La mejor oficialista es Cristina, con 29; y Milei llega a 34.
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