Tucumán es la segunda provincia con mayor cantidad de desempleados
El Indec dio a conocer el índice de desempleo, que se ubicó en el 10,2% en el primer trimestre de este año. Según el informe difundidas por el organismo, la falta de trabajo afectó a 1,3 millones de personas en los 31 aglomerados urbanos del país donde se releva la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH).
El índice bajó 0,8 puntos porcentuales en relación al cuarto trimestre de 2020 y recortó 0,2 puntos con respecto al mismo período del año pasado. Además, se situó casi tres puntos por debajo del máximo número alcanzado desde la irrupción de la pandemia, que se registró en el segundo trimestre de 2020, cuando la desocupación llegó al 13,1% por efecto de la cuarentena impuesta por el Gobierno.
En cambio, la tasa de empleo, que mide la proporción de personas ocupadas con relación a la población total, se ubicó en 41,6% (la más alta desde el primer trimestre del año pasado, cuando marcó 42,2%). Entre los ocupados, hay un 71,8% de asalariados; un 24,4% de trabajadores por cuenta propia; un 3,1% de patrones; y solo un 0,7% corresponde a trabajadores familiares sin remuneración.
Los distritos con más desempleo
Del informe del organismo surge con nitidez que los distritos con mayor desempleo son Córdoba (14,8%), Tucumán (14,4%) y Tierra del Fuego (12,3%).
En tanto en Tierra del Fuego, si bien el desempleo se mantiene en niveles altos, sobre todo por la paralización de la industria turística, el guarismo se redujo en medio punto en comparación con el primer trimestre cuando alcanzó 12,8%. En la provincia austral alrededor de 9000 personas se encuentran desocupadas.
Los que menos desempleo tienen
San Luis, Río Negro y Formosa, tres provincias con un alto porcentaje de empleo público, son los distritos que menos desocupación registraron en el informe difundido por el Indec.
En la provincia puntana la tasa de desempleo cayó un punto y medio desde la última medición (4,9%) para situarse en 3,5% en el primer trimestre de este año. Unas 4000 personas no tienen trabajo en ese distrito. El rápido avance de la vacunación en ese distrito permitió que los cierres no fueran tan duros como en el resto del país, lo cual gravitó sobre la actividad.
En el caso rionegrino, el descenso fue uno de los más pronunciados. Del 6% del último trimestre de 2020, la provincia gobernada por Arabella Carreras cayó al 3,9%, más de dos puntos. Según los datos oficiales, solo unas mil personas no tienen empleo.
Las mayores fluctuaciones
Tucumán registró el mayor crecimiento del índice de desempleo respecto de la última medición. La tasa creció en la provincia 4,9% pasando del 9,5 al 14,4 por ciento.
Jujuy fue el otro distrito con fuerte suba de la desocupación. En la provincia que gobierna Gerardo Morales el índice pasó del 4% del período anterior al 7,4% difundido hoy. En la provincia norteña 12 mil personas no tienen trabajo.
Finalmente, Corrientes es la tercera provincia con un importante salto en el desempleo. En el distrito en el que Gustavo Valdés irá por su reelección este año, el índice creció un 3,2 por ciento, pasando del 6,7% al 9,9%. Allí 17 mil personas no tienen trabajo.
Qué se espera para los próximos meses
Un informe de la consultora Ecolatina, vaticina para los próximos meses una ligera mejora en el empleo informal, pero una lenta recuperación en el trabajo registrado.
“En la medida que las restricciones se relajen y la vacunación avance, esperamos que el empleo informal vuelva a los niveles prepandemia hacia el cierre del año representando más de la mitad de los empleos que se creen durante los próximos meses”, señala.
Y añade: “Esta dinámica podría eventualmente reducir la expansión del cuentapropismo, que parece ser una salida laboral para muchos trabajadores y familias en este contexto, considerando que el empleo formal crecerá lentamente a lo largo del año en los 31 aglomerados urbanos”.
“Conjuntamente, prevemos que el empleo -en todas sus modalidades- crezca alrededor de 6,5% en promedio este año, quedando más de 3% por debajo de 2019. Esta parcial recuperación sería mayor a la de la actividad económica a nivel agregado, en parte por el rezago en términos reales que los ingresos laborales presentarán durante buena parte del año, y en parte por la precarización del mercado de trabajo, ya que la recuperación estará liderada por los empleos no registrados”, concluye.
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