InternacionalesNacionales

China cada vez le compra menos a Argentina

Y el déficit acumulado de los últimos años ya supera a la deuda del FMI

El rojo en el intercambio comercial es sistemático. Las ventas a ese destino cayeron 21% en abril y 24% en mayo. En los primeros cinco meses del año el país le exportó más a Chile que a China, con el que desde 2013 acumula un saldo negativo de USD 57.000 millones.

Las dificultades del gobierno para aumentar las reservas internacionales del Banco Central en el período de mayor liquidación de divisas del campo y el sector agroalimentario, principales aportantes de dólares de la Argentina, llevaron recientemente a Cristina Kirchner a denunciar un supuesto “festival de importaciones” que el equipo económico estaría dejando escapar.

Pero más allá de la denuncia de la Vicepresidente, que el propio Banco Central se encargó de refutar, ni el sector de la coalición gubernamental que responde al presidente Alberto Fernández ni el kirchnerismo –enzarzados en un conflicto que aumenta la incertidumbre política y el riesgo país– han reparado en el achicamiento del superávit comercial de la Argentina en los últimos meses, debido al aumento de las importaciones de energía y la fortísima reducción de las ventas a China y el consecuente aumento del déficit bilateral con ese país.

Esa caída ocurrió pese al aumento de los precios de las materias primas, principal rubro de las ventas argentinas y se debe al menos en parte a la política de “Covid 0″ y confinamientos que dispuso Beijing, reduciendo las operaciones en el puerto de Shanghái, el de mayor actividad del mundo, y provocando una congestión que aún perdura.

Entre abril de 2020 y abril de 2022, precisó recientemente el Indec, los fletes del intercambio con China se encarecieron nada menos que 301%, contra 85% que aumentaron los fletes del comercio con la Unión Europea, el 44% los del comercio con América del Norte y el 32% con el Mercosur. La política de confinamientos de Beijing se inició en marzo y tuvo rápidos efectos sobre el comercio exterior argentino: las ventas a China cayeron, en valor, 21% en abril y 24% en mayo. De este modo, precisa el informe del Indec sobre el Intercambio Comercial Argentino, en los primeros cinco meses del año las ventas a China fueron inferiores a las de igual período de 2021 y el déficit bilateral fue de USD 4.873 millones, muy por encima de los déficits que la Argentina tuvo con otros socios comerciales, como Brasil (1.647 millones), EEUU (1.022 millones), Alemania (801 millones) y Japón (198 millones).

El déficit con China superó en 33% la suma de los déficits con esos cuatro países y en 52% el superávit de la Argentina en sus intercambios con todo el mundo. Si bien el rojo bilateral se acentuó en los últimos meses, es sistemático en el intercambio con el gigante asiático. Fue de USD 8.535 millones en los 12 meses transcurridos hasta mayo, y de USD 32.916 millones desde enero de 2017, período en el que la Argentina tuvo un superávit total de USD 34.469 millones, como se muestra en uno de los gráficos adjuntos.

Si la mirada se estira hasta 2013, abarcando 9 años y 5 meses, el saldo en rojo acumulado por la Argentina en el intercambio con China es de USD 56.901 millones de dólares, casi un 30% más que la deuda contraída durante el gobierno de Mauricio Macri con el Fondo Monetario Internacional.

El comercio de bienes y el crédito son conceptos diferentes, claro está.

Las importaciones desde China, en particular partes y piezas y equipos de capital, son importantes para la actividad económica local, , al igual que las importaciones de los mismos rubros desde otros países. Pero la comparación de cifras dimensiona la importancia del déficit que el intercambio con China ha tenido y tiene para la Argentina. China es, a su vez, un financista clave, a través del crédito para algunas de las obras públicas más grandes que se están llevando a cabo en el país, como las represas sobre el río Santa Cruz. Y es también un sostén de las reservas del Banco Central, que al miércoles pasado sumaban USD 38.231 millones en términos “brutos”.

Alberto Fernández y Xi Jinping, durante la visita que el presidente hizo a China en febrero pasadoAlberto Fernández y Xi Jinping, durante la visita que el presidente hizo a China en febrero pasado.

Esas reservas incluyen unos USD 21.500 millones en renmimbis, la moneda china, producto de un “canje de monedas” gestionado inicialmente durante la gestión de Martín Redrado y que fue extendido en unos 3.500 millones en febrero pasado, en ocasión de la visita del presidente Alberto Fernández a Beijing, donde sostuvo una reunión bilateral con el presidente chino, Xi Jinping.

Chile compra más que China

Lo cierto es que a raíz del colapso en las compras chinas a la Argentina en los últimos dos meses, en los primeros cinco meses del año las ventas argentinas al gigante asiático cayeron 0,2% respecto de igual período de 2021 y que en lo que va del año la Argentina le exportó más a Chile (USD 2.224 millones) que a China (USD 2.211 millones), que absorbió apenas 6,2% de las ventas argentinas (poco menos de 1 de cada 16 dólares), pero se mantuvo como el principal proveedor de nuestro país, con una cuota del 21,6% (más de 1 de cada 5) de las compras argentinas.

Una toma del sitio Marine Traffic muestra la congestión en la jornada en la zona del puerto de Shanghai (Credito: Marine Traffic)Una toma del sitio Marine Traffic muestra la congestión en la jornada en la zona del puerto de Shanghai (Credito: Marine Traffic)

A fines de abril, en un informe sobre los efectos de los confinamientos y la política china de Covid 0 sobre la ArgentinaInfobae había reportado que el número de buques en espera en el puerto de Shanghai triplicaba el de fines de febrero. Si bien la congestión se redujo en las últimas semanas, sigue siendo muy alta, como muestra la más reciente representación gráfica del sitio MarineTraffic (ver arriba) que corrobora diariamente la actividad y congestión en los mares y puertos del mundo.

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