Consultoras privadas ahora proyectan una inflación de 60% en 2022
Las estimaciones en enero eran del 55% para todo 2022, pero por el impacto de la suba inédita del precio de los alimentos y combustibles, los privados le sumaron a esa proyección unos 5 puntos.
Las consultoras comenzaron el año con proyecciones de inflación unos puntos por encima del 50,9% del año pasado, debido a la inercia y al fin del dólar y las tarifas como anclas, en base a lo pactado con el FMI. En medio de la guerra, comienzan a recalibrar: los precios internacionales aportarían al menos 5 puntos más, y hablan de un 60% como “piso”. Con las nuevas medidas, el Gobierno apuesta por mantener las proyecciones de hasta 48%.
En la consultora C&T hoy tienen proyecciones para todo 2022 de 60%, cuando en enero se manejaban entre 53 y 55%. “El rango se movió unos 5 puntos porcentuales”, afirmó María Castiglioni, directora de C&T Asesores Económicos. De acuerdo a los factores que podrían acelerarla o moderarla, mencionó el escenario internacional y las medidas que pueda llegar a tomar el Gobierno. “No me refiero a las medidas anunciadas, porque no vemos mucho efecto por ahí, sino a las fiscales y monetarias, que impactan, pero con más demora”, anticipó.
En la misma línea, Guido Lorenzo, director de LCG, aseguró que las proyecciones para 2022 son del 60%, cuando en enero eran del 55%. De todos modos, anticipó que puede que no sea el número final: “En febrero cambiamos a 60%, pero hoy no tenemos un número, lo que si sabemos que ese es el piso, cuando antes podía ser la estimación puntual”. Las variables que seguirán para ver el impacto en sus proyecciones serán el precio de los alimentos, los combustibles, la evolución del tipo de cambio y los salarios.
En tanto, en Analytica también tienen una proyección del 61% para 2022. Los datos consideran “un salto de la inflación en marzo, y un porcentaje alto para abril”, afirmó Claudio Caprarulo, director de Analytica. Hacia adelante, podrían recalibrar las proyecciones “en base a la reacción integral del Gobierno”, agregó.
“Esperábamos una aceleración de la inflación en los primeros meses del año, por el cambio en la pauta de devaluación, pero en enero y febrero los estacionales y alimentos subieron por encima de lo que proyectábamos. Y a eso hay que agregarle el impacto de la guerra que se va a notar en marzo”, anticipó. Caprarulo destacó el shock internacional: “El desafío es cómo logra adaptarse el programa económico a un entorno donde ya el FMI habla de un crecimiento más bajo con inflación acelerándose en el mundo”.
Impacto de las medidas
En el presupuesto 2022, elaborado por el Ministerio de Economía, la inflación se esperaba en un 33%. A partir de enero, el Gobierno recalibró y en adelante comenzó a hablar del 40%, para dar una pauta a las negociaciones paritarias. En el memorando acordado con el FMI, se estima una franja de entre el 38-48%, que por ahora sostiene.
En la conferencia de esta semana del ministro de Desarrollo Productivo, Matías Kulfas, Ámbito consultó si los precios internacionales de guerra podrían impactar en una mayor inflación para 2022. “Es lo que queremos evitar”, contestó Kulfas, y aseguró que el paquete de medidas anunciado busca “estabilizar”. “Las medidas que tomamos van a apuntar a resolver la incertidumbre, frenar la inercia y generar un mecanismo compensatorio para suba de costos. El objetivo de corto plazo es estabilizar la inflación, y disipado el escenario internacional, si retomar la senda a la baja de la inflación”, detalló el ministro.
De todos modos, analistas económicos describen que las medidas podrían tener una “compensación parcial”, pero no total, según describió Nicolás Pertierra, economista jefe de CESO. Si bien dijo que hoy es “difícil poner un número tope, porque depende del tamaño del shock internacional y de la efectividad de las medidas”, duda que pueda ser superior al 65%.
En la misma línea, Eva Sacco, magister en desarrollo económico, descartó que pueda dispararse una hiperinflación, pero también habló del 60% como “piso”. El centro CEPA, que integra, proyectaba en enero 50-55%. Según analizó, si marzo vuelve a dar elevado tal como se espera, en 4,7% como febrero, y luego los precios se “estabilizan”, la inflación acumulada estará en 58% anual. “Esto si el problema de commodities se solucionara y no tuviéramos más impulsos por el resto del año”, analizó.
El Gobierno confía en el FMI para ayudar a bajar la inflación: “Dará certidumbre y fortalecerá las reservas del Banco Central”, aseguró Kulfas. Además, esperan una moderación por la baja de emisión monetaria, el menor déficit fiscal, y las mayores tasas de interés del Banco Central. Según un informe de la consultora PxQ, en base a los créditos firmados entre Argentina y el FMI, la inflación se aceleró durante el año posterior a la firma de los acuerdos./Ámbito
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