Déficit: las claves que hay que mirar para anticipar posibles turbulencias
Los cortocircuitos en la coalición gobernante inyectan una dosis extra de incertidumbre a los tomadores de decisiones. ¿Qué están monitoreando? Los analistas no sólo testearán los gastos de aquí a fin de año.
Entonces, cabe preguntarse qué debe ocurrir para que esto se cumpla. En primer lugar, que los ingresos sigan creciendo en términos reales. Condición necesaria. Pero además, lo deben hacer muy por encima de lo que lo haga el gasto. O sea, la condición necesaria y suficiente es que los ingresos deben crecer por encima del 45%/50% interanual en el segundo semestre. En la primera parte del año lo viene haciendo a más del doble (en el I cuatrimestre entre el 60%/70% interanual vs el 25%/35% que lo hace el gasto primario) pero en la segunda el riesgo es que se emparejen demasiado las tasas de crecimiento interanual. Pero la mejora de las cuentas fiscales fue posible no solo por el boom de los ingresos fiscales vinculados a la súper-soja y demás commodities y a los impuestos extraordinarios, sino también a que el gasto primario “usual” creció en forma habitual a un ritmo de 40%/43% interanual mientras que el gasto primario “pandémico” sufrió una caída de entre 25%/40% interanual. De esta manera el gasto primario total apenas creció entre 30% y 44% interanual y explica la mejora de las cuentas fiscales.
¿Por dónde pasan las claves para que el déficit primario no supere ese hipnotizador umbral de los $1,5 billones? En primer lugar, teniendo el dato cierto de la recaudación del impuesto a la Riqueza, una clave es que la inflación siga presente y dé una mano licuando (por encima del 45%). En segundo lugar, que se confirme un ahorro en el gasto “pandémico”. Y que además se admita la licuación de jubilaciones y prestaciones, y no sobrevenga un desmadre de IFE ni ATP. O sea, la licuadora inflacionaria debe continuar haciendo el trabajo sucio. Los ingresos deben mantener su performance mientras el gasto mantiene el respirador licuador de la infinanciable previsión social pero los subsidios vuelven a implosionar. De ahí que el gasto pandémico juega un rol protagónico en la estrategia ajustadora. La clave pasa por saber cuánto bajará y si ese menor gasto o ahorro finalmente será reasignado a reforzar gastos licuados o a mejorar los números fiscales.
Los próximos meses serán desafiantes para el Gobierno porque las perspectivas fiscales muestran cierto deterioro y la pandemia le obliga a imponer nuevas restricciones. Por ello, en el mercado temen que ante las crecientes necesidades de financiamiento en el corto plazo reaparezca alguna inestabilidad cambiaria por más que el BCRA gane reservas. Si bien en lo que va del año el resultado fiscal es mejor al esperado no puede soslayarse que a medida que avance el calendario la estacionalidad de las erogaciones fiscales sube, y con ello crecen las necesidades financieras. Veremos quién gana más terreno el rollover o la emisión monetaria.
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