El 30% de los hogares pagarán la tarifa plena de luz y gas
El Poder Ejecutivo dispuso que todos los usuarios que no se hayan anotado en el registrado de subsidios sean caratulados como «nivel 1», es decir, que perderán los subsidios en las boletas de luz y gas. Según algunas estimaciones, podrían ser entre 5 millones y 5,5 millones de hogares. Casi un 30% de los usuarios, de acuerdo con la nota del periodista Martín Bidegaray en Clarín.
De esta manera, las personas que no se anotaron en el registro de subsidios caen, por default, dentro del denominado “nivel 1”, es decir que no necesitan subvenciones en las boletas de los servicios públicos. En la configuración oficial en el “nivel 1” estaban los hogares de alto poder adquisitivo (ingresos familiares por arriba de los $ 390.000 mensuales) que no necesitan auxilio para pagar las boletas.
La mayoría de los funcionarios, especialistas y directivos de las empresas estiman que no todos esos hogares pertenecen a la franja con alto poder adquisitivo.
La quita de ahora es la primera de tres. En septiembre, se remueven un 20% de los subsidios. En noviembre, otro 40% y en enero 2023, el 40% final. Allí se sabrá el aumento final por la quita de subvenciones. Especialistas estiman que estará entre 140% para usuarios generales y 170% para clientes de “altos ingresos”. El Gobierno no avala esa cifra, pero tampoco posee números alternativos. Desde febrero 2023, los usuarios nivel 1 pagarán «tarifa plena», sin descuentos.
En su resolución, el gobierno dice que ya identificó a beneficiarios de tarifa social, jubilados y otros sectores vulnerables que requieren ayuda oficial y que no estarán alcanzados por la categoría de ingresos más altos. Hay 9,2 millones de hogares que consumen electricidad anotados en el registro de subsidios. En el caso del gas, son 5,84 millones, según datos del Gobierno.
Como hay casi 14,5 millones de usuarios de electricidad, y dos tercios se anotaron (más de 9 millones), la pregunta es qué pasará con los 5,5 millones restantes. La Secretaría de Energía estuvo incorporando beneficiarios de tarifa social u otros sectores vulnerables a los padrones, pero no detalló qué cantidad de usuarios entraron en los padrones de esa manera. No se sabe si la cifra de 9,2 millones de anotados en luz y 5,84 millones en gas los incluye.
Los números actuales dejarían cerca de 5,5 millones de hogares que actualmente no están en el registro, y que se les aplicaría el cuadro tarifario de “sectores altos”, aunque su realidad económica sería la opuesta. Se cree que un millón reúne los requisitos para ser caratulado como altos ingresos (grupo familiar que gana $ 390.000, posesión de tres propiedades o tres autos).
Comportamiento en las provincias
Hubo un contrapunto creciente entre las provincias y la Secretaría de Energía sobre cómo anotar a los que no están en el registro de subsidios. En Córdoba y Santa Fe, estiman que entre un 45% y 50% de los usuarios no se anotaron en el registro. Y dudan que esa totalidad de hogares sean de ingresos altos.
Para las provincias, la definición sobre si un usuario es categoría 1 (no recibirá subsidios) o categoría 2 o 3 es importante: las distribuidoras le pagan a Cammesa un precio diferente según los clientes que poseen y su posición en el padrón de los subsidios.
La llegada de facturas con subas de hasta 50% -como las que tendrán los usuarios sin subsidios- a jubilados u otros segmentos que no llenaron el registro de subsidios es una preocupación en las provincias. Estiman que adultos mayores no llenaron el formulario porque no supieron cómo hacerlo. Y aunque hay jubilados con tarifa social, hay otros que no cuentan con esa protección. Ahora corren el riesgo de pagar las mimas tarifas que hogares con ingresos de $ 390.000 mensuales.
Los importes de las boletas de luz y gas subieron desde comienzos de mes, y el impacto de las mismas será en octubre. Sin embargo, las distribuidoras de esos servicios públicos cuentan que -en algunos casos- todavía no poseen los padrones con la segmentación, es decir los nombres de los clientes a los que se les quitará el subsidio, o se los mantendrá parcialmente o totalmente.
Las dificultades para completar el registro de subsidios sobresalen en dos grupos: adultos mayores sin un familiar o amigo que los auxilie en el uso de tecnología, más segmentos postergados que tienen poco uso de herramientas tecnológicas o internet en su vida cotidiana.
Las distribuidoras de gas aún no poseen el registro de subsidios para clasificar a sus clientes, según explicaron distribuidoras de ese servicio, que pidieron no ser identificadas. El aumento en las boletas del gas será cercano al 50%. La temporada de altos consumos de gas ya pasó. Un retraso en la aplicación de los nuevos cuadros tarifarios no tendría un impacto significativo en las cuentas públicas, según fuentes del sector.
Aunque los economistas medirán la suba de tarifas como impacto en la inflación de septiembre -siempre se hace al momento que se difunden nuevos cuadros tarifarios-, los bolsillos de los hogares lo sentirán a partir de octubre.
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