El kirchnerismo cree que Guzmán no podrá cumplir el ajuste de subsidios que prometió al FMI
El ajuste diseñado en el acuerdo con el FMI tiene como corazón una drástica baja de los subsidios a la energía. El kirchnerismo no conoce aún la letra chica del entendimiento y ese fue el principal motivo de la renuncia de Máximo Kirchner a la jefatura del bloque de diputados.
Pero en el área de Energía que controla directamente Cristina Kirchner estiman que lo acordado con el FMI no estará muy lejos de la meta de reducción de subsidios que Guzmán puso en el proyecto de presupuesto para este año, que la oposición rechazó en el Congreso.
Guzmán estableció en su proyecto de Presupuesto una meta de gasto en subsidios a la energía del 1,7% del PBI. Una baja drástica respecto al 2,9% que marcó el 2021. Para este año las proyecciones más voluntaristas hablan de un gasto del 2,4%. Esto sin mencionar la disparada de precios del gas y el petróleo por la crisis en Ucrania.
«Lejos la principal causa del aumento de los subsidios a la energía es la suba de precios internacionales del gas y los combustibles que alimentan la generación eléctrica, por eso los que creen que es un tema de tarifas no entienden bien el sistema», explicó a LPO una fuente que conoce en profundidad el sector.
En efecto en el último año el precio del gas se multiplicó varias veces, convirtiéndose en un problema de primer orden incluso para economías desarrolladas como España o el Reino Unido.
La fuente explicó que para alcanzar la meta de reducción de subsidios diseñada por Guzmán sería necesario aumentar las tarifas al menos un 180%, una opción inviable en términos políticos -no pasaría el filtro del kirchnerismo- y de altísimo riesgo en un contexto de inflación por arriba del 50 por ciento
Hoy el aumento de tarifas anunciado es del 20%, combinado con una «segmentación» de barrios de alto poder adquisitivo a los que se cobrará tarifa sin subsidios. Pero la segmentación es un proceso que hay que medirlo en años. Porque se comienza en una determinada área, se da opción a los usuarios a justificar porque no pueden afrontar la quita y de ahí se expande.
«La segmentación es un objetivo de justicia en el gasto de los recursos del Estado, no es una llave para bajar el déficit», explicó a LPO la fuente consultada.
Con un agravante, Economía no reconoce la segmentación diseñada por el kirchnerista Federico Basualdo y filtra la posibilidad de dejarla de lado e imponer un aumento plano del 40% y mantener la tarifa social. Un camino que según las fuentes consultadas tampoco tendría un impacto muy relevante en el déficit.
Según la mirada del kirchnerismo, Guzmán debió plantear un sendero más «serio» al Fondo. Explicar que este año por la volatilidad de los precios excepcionalmente altos de los hidrocarburos no se iba a poder reducir el déficit, pero en el 2023 a partir de la entrada en funcionamiento del gasoducto Néstor Kirchner que permitiría ampliar el uso del gas de Vaca Muerta, se podría iniciar una baja del gasto.
El problema es que esa hoja de ruta se chocó de frente con una de las demoras más inexplicables del gobierno de Alberto Fernández. El presidente se tomó seis meses para firmar el decreto que puso en marcha la licitación de la obra más importante en términos estratégicos de su mandato.
Vaca Muerta hoy produce más gas del que puede distribuir porque todos los gasoductos están al máximo de su capacidad. Y la falencia de transporte impide llegar al norte argentino con el gas neuquino por lo que es necesario importarlo de Bolivia. Pero el gobierno de Luis Arce eligió privilegiar los envíos a Brasil y viene reduciendo sustancialmente el gas que entrega a la Argentina.
«Si esta situación se mantiene en el invierno vamos a tener una crisis por falta de gas en el Norte y ahí vamos a tener que salir a comprar cualquier cosa, hasta gas licuado de Chile a precios exorbitantes», anticiparon a LPO las fuentes consultadas. En ese caso el déficit por los subsidios a la energía podría trepar aún por encima del 2,4% del PBI, que ya está muy lejos del 1,7% que se supone Guzmán prometió al Fondo.
Para tener una idea del daño que causó la demora de Alberto Fernández en activar la obra del gasoducto Néstor Kirchner, las fuentes consultadas explicaron que «la concreción del primer tramo, que a buen ritmo podría terminarse en un año, permitiría inyectar al sistema 10 millones de BTU de gas diarios, que es lo que compramos a Bolivia» y agregaron «si a eso sumamos un planta compresora se podrían intectar unos 20 millones de BTU por día».
Una planta compresora como la proyectada costaría unos 800 millones de dólares, pero el ahorro que generaría en términos de gasto del Estado y de divisas justificarían la inversión, agregaron las fuentes.
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