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El mundo llega hoy a los 8 mil millones de habitantes

Así lo indica la proyección de Naciones Unidas, que también marca hasta cuándo la población seguirá aumentando y cuándo comenzará a disminuir.

El mundo llega este martes 15 de noviembre a los 8 mil millones de habitantes, según las proyecciones y revisiones de Naciones Unidas. ¿Qué significa esto? Obviamente, que la población del planeta no para de crecer. Todavía. La salvedad es que la tasa de crecimiento es cada vez más baja.

Basta revisar cuándo fue que la población global había sumado el anterior billón, esto es, los 7 mil millones de habitantes. Había sucedido el 31 de octubre de 2011. Es decir, transcurrieron 11 años para que el mundo lo lograra. Y eso significó un crecimiento del 14,28 por ciento.

Las proyecciones hacia adelante indican, efectivamente, una ralentización del crecimiento poblacional. Se estima que el mundo llegará a los 9 mil millones de habitantes en 2037. Es decir que tendrán que pasar 15 años (cuatro más que ahora) para que los habitantes del planeta aumenten entonces menos: el 12,5 por ciento (casi dos puntos porcentuales por debajo).

Luego, los 10 mil millones de personas la ONU los pronostica para el año 2058. Esto quiere decir que habrá que esperar, desde 2037, 21 años más para que el mundo sume un nuevo billón, que en proporción significará un incremento poblacional menor aún, del 11,1 por ciento.

Así es como los plazos para hacer posible el incremento poblacional se estiran cada vez más, en función de que la tasa de crecimiento se va reduciendo con el tiempo. Esto queda aún más en evidencia al revisar que en 1959 el mundo tenía apenas 3 mil millones de habitantes y para duplicar esa cifra se necesitaron sólo 40 años.

Se había llegado a 1999, entonces, a los 6 mil millones de habitantes, por lo que en aquel momento al mundo le llevó prácticamente lo mismo pasar de 6 a 7 mil millones que de 7 a 8 mil millones.

Según el sitio Worldometers, que se hizo popular por sus estadísticas durante la pandemia de Covid pero que posee datos que exceden por mucho los esta enfermedad, el mundo está creciendo al día de hoy a una tasa anual del 0,84 por ciento, lo que implica a valores del presente unos 67 millones de personas más por año.

Esta tasa de crecimiento es menos de la mitad de la de la década del ’60, cuando alcanzó su pico con el 2,09 por ciento anual. En función de las proyecciones de incremento poblacional, ese 0,84 por ciento actual tenderá a ser cada vez menor, con una inquietante tendencia al estancamiento y decrecimiento en el mediano plazo.

Para 2048 se espera que la tasa de aumento pase a ser del 0,50 por ciento y que en 2086 sea del 0 por ciento, para empezar a declinar hacia el año 2100, para cuando se espera una tasa negativa del -0,11 por ciento. Esto es, claro, más muertes que nacimientos. Algunos análisis prevén que el comienzo de este decrecimiento se produciría incluso antes.

El escenario de retracción parece todavía lejano a juzgar por los nacimientos y muertes ocurridas en lo que va de 2022: hubo la mitad de muertes que de nacimientos: 58,4 millones contra algo más de 116,7 millones. Sin embargo, la tendencia va haciendo que esa diferencia se vuelva cada vez más estrecha.

Los cálculos que hace en tiempo real Worldometers dan cuenta de que el saldo de población ganada en lo que va de este año ha sido de 58,2 millones de personas.

Al ir un poco más atrás en la historia se puede ver que la humanidad necesitó llegar hasta el año 1800 para lograr sus primeros mil millones de habitantes. Y 130 años más para llegar a los 2 mil millones. Para pasar de los 2 mil a los 3 mil millones hicieron falta apenas 30 años, de 1930 a 1960. Y para los 4 mil millones transcurrieron 14 años. Luego, 13 años más para alcanzar los 5 mil millones.

La época de mayor crecimiento de la población mundial coincidió con el momento histórico en que el aumento de la expectativa de vida (de la mano de los descubrimientos científicos y médicos) se combinó con un un boom de nacimientos luego de la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Luego, la balanza comenzaría a volcarse con mayor ímpetu en el sentido inverso, cuando las transformaciones sociales marcaran una nueva tendencia: procreación retractiva y una valoración cada vez más notoria del desarrollo individual. El resultado es una población más envejecida que, como un cuerpo, apunta al ocaso.

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