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El impacto en el mercado local del conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania
La economía argentina juega su suerte en un difícil equilibrio entre la necesidad de acumular las reservas, el acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la necesidad de evitar que la incertidumbre de los mercados financieros internacionales impacten negativamente.
Esta semana, las miradas del mercado local parecen estar hacia el acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) que está mucho más cerca de cerrarse y podría ser anunciado en esta semana. Pero el gran debate hasta el momento, parece ser cómo la Argentina podrá cumplir las metas del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) ante una necesidad de acumular reservas en contexto bélico. Parece difícil, y lo es.
Para el economista Federico Glustein consultado por Ámbito, se puede esperar un cambio en el mercado de divisas local pero “todo va a depender de cómo se muevan los capitales y cuánto escale el conflicto”.
“Si el conflicto se sostiene podemos llegar a tener algún tipo de positividad porque están subiendo las materias primas y Argentina como productor puede llegar a tener algún diferencial”, agregó Glustein. Sin embargo, otros economistas señalan que la Argentina también está pasando una situación difícil respecto a los productos agrícolas que pueden ser exportados. Un caso es el de la soja, que según estimaciones de la Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario uno de los productos agrícolas principales, tendrá la siembra más baja en los últimos 14 años. Los precios elevados a nivel internacional, pueden llegar a compensar esa situación.
Para Natalia Motyl, economista de la Fundación Libertad y Progreso, el impacto en el mercado local será mayor de lo esperado: “Con reservas de rápida disponibilidad en negativo en u$s3.000 millones, escasez de reformas estructurales básicas, un déficit que aumentó en enero y un mercado cambiario muy sensible; cualquier shock exógeno puede desestabilizar los mercados locales”.
“Las tensiones geopolíticas como lo que está ocurriendo con Rusia-Ucrania puede afectar profundamente a uno de los países más vulnerables de la región si el conflicto se encrudece. Más allá de que en el corto plazo podamos vernos beneficiados con precios más altos de los productos básicos que vendemos afuera; la contracara de la tensión perjudicaría más”, agregó.
“Uno de los pilares del acuerdo con el FMI era conseguir engrosar las reservas y financiar el déficit con capitales de organismos internacionales y socios estratégicos como Rusia y China. En un contexto geopolítico delicado, esos capitales con los que contábamos para 2022 no estarían. En tiempos de incertidumbres crecientes, los capitales huyen hacia puertos más seguros y países con una consistencia macro más sólida que la nuestra”. Lo que los economistas llaman “Flight to quality” (vuelo hacia la calidad) por parte de los inversores mundiales.
Un ejemplo para recalcar este panorama, es el mencionado por Federico Glustein: “Argentina exporta anual u$s700 millones a Rusia, y no es una cantidad suficientemente elevada pero se puede llegar a resentir si el conflicto continúa”.
Motyl anticipa el peor escenario para la Argentina en el caso de que no pueda contar con los dólares suficientes para cumplir con los compromisos al restringirse las alternativas de financiamiento: “podríamos proyectar un dólar por encima de los $300 en poco tiempo y una fuerte aceleración de la inflación que llegaría al 70% para finales de año”.
Glustein no parece coincidir con esta apreciación: “las modificaciones en las cotizaciones se van a dar más esperando algún tipo de contexto local que el contexto internacional”.
Al parecer, la única coincidencia hasta ahora entre la mayoría de los analistas es que nada parece fácil para la economía argentina.
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