Si fuera parte del FMI les diría que eliminen Aerolíneas Argentinas
Nos visitó Licenciado en Economía, Gustavo Walberg, para hablar sobre la economía argentina actual.
Se le pregunto sobre la moneda electrónica a lo que respondió «La moneda electrónica es un fenómeno de la economía y es útil estar atento. Hasta ahora la corriente principal plante que, no son monedas son alternativas de inversión. Para que lleguen a ser moneda tienen que tener otras condiciones que hoy no tienen. Influyen en la economía, pero cuanto más avanzada sea la economía y más chica influirá.
En Argentina, aunque sea chica, no es tan grande la influencia porque nuestro mercado financiero es pequeño. Los países desarrollados tienen la ventaja de la extensión de las finanzas electrónicas. Ese tipo de países están más acostumbrados a moverse con instrumentos financieros a través de internet.
En Argentina no hay tanta costumbre, la gente promedio no se mete si quiera en la bolsa de valores. Es una minoría los que se mueven con esto. Además, es un poco de costumbre, hoy nadie retira todo el sueldo del banco, la mayoría se maneja con débito. Lo de la moneda electrónica es algo similar. Por supuesto el día que sea fácil debitar como una cuenta sueldo, será más fácil el uso de bitcoin en Argentina. Todavía no está extendida esa costumbre en el país.
Hay que estar atento, hoy funciona como inversión no como moneda. Uno de los requisitos es la estabilidad y eso no tiene hoy en día, porque hacer una operación a mediano y largo plazo con bitcoins no se puede porque no sabemos cuánto valdrá un bitcoin la semana que viene. Por ahora es más confiable operar con monedas oficiales, emitidas por gobiernos, a pesar de los gobiernos que tenemos, es más confiable por ahora”
Respecto a las nuevas medidas tomadas por el Presidente de la Nación y como quedaba Argentina, económicamente, en relación a este anuncio, dijo “Se va acabando el margen de emisión. Martin Guzmán lo tiene claro a eso. Es una persona seria, yo no comparto mucho la visión que tiene. Pero aun así en las grandes cosas es bastante serio.
Su planteo es que tenga superávit fiscal y veía como un peligro el endeudamiento argentino, el problema es el método. En la visión de Guzmán,es mediante la suba de impuestos»
“De todas formas, aunque ante el exceso de gasto público Guzmán hizo planteos de reducción de gastos que son razonables, aunque no se los ve como políticamente aceptables. Ellos estaban por el lado de la disminución de subsidios en los servicios para el conurbano que es el electorado del kirchnerismo. Lo que Guzmán quiso hacer es arreglar el esquema tarifario, cosa que también se quiso hacer con Macri y no se pudo. Es ridículo que la gente que vive en Recoleta pague tarifas más bajas de gas y electricidad que la gente que vive en Tucumán.
Las tarifas del interior, las fija el propio interior, por lo tanto, la queja de las tarifas en provincia hay que quejarse con Manzur y el ERSEPT, no con el presidente. Ahora el AMBA tiene una gran concentración de votantes, si tocas las tarifas en el conurbano estas afectando al electorado, ese es parte del problema junto con la mala costumbre de estar siempre subsidiado. Ajustar la realidad te duele. “
En cuanto al incremento del gasto público y la relación con el crecimiento de la pobreza, agrego “Por otro lado juega en contra la necesidad política de Alberto Fernández de consolidar la imagen entre los votantes propios de ahí a plantear aumentos de gastos. Hace bastante tiempo que el gasto social crece y la pobreza crece al mismo tiempo. No es una solución. Es un paliativo que puede transformarse en un círculo vicioso, es algo que hay que discutirlo con seriedad y no veo que la dirigencia política lo esté haciendo.
Para terminar con la pobreza hay que crear empresas, generar empleos, bajar impuestos, bajar tarifas a las empresas, bajar la burocracia. De que realmente exista un análisis de no solo de cuanta gente anda con plata para comprar si no con cuanto cuenta el empresario para pagar. »
Continúo explicando sobre el marco legal y el incentivo que existe en Argentina para invertir «El estado debería dar el marco, y en eso están fallando, incluso retrocedieron mucho en legislación como las leyes del trabajo online, de facilidad de creación empresas. Argentina no da garantía jurídicas y económicas a las empresas. No mantienen los marcos legales vigentes.»
«Un país serio funciona con contrapesos de poder, con una república, y vos podes tener república con contrapesos de poderes que permitan proyectar un marco de política económica y a partir de ahí un marco de inversión económico. Sin la creencia entre los gobernantes de que es legítimo que te controlen, que te marquen la cancha. Quedamos sometidos al arbitrio de quien este en el poder ejecutivo. No vamos a ningún lado. “agregó.
Cuando se le consulto la mirada del FMI respecto a nuestro país, manifestó “El FMI nos sigue mirando mal. Cualquier funcionario del fondo es político y todos propuestos por gobiernos. En parte, por eso Macri recibió ayudas que fueron irresponsables, porque que Donald Trump quería jugar a su favor.»
“El FMI no renegocia, su esquema es reemplazar un plan viejo por un plan nuevo con mayor plazo y con tasas distintas, pero eso es lo que no le entra en la cabeza al kirchnerismo. A eso Guzmán lo tiene claro. El problema que están planteando ahora, hay dos aspectos, el tema del aumento del capital del fondo que piensan que van a gastarlo como quieren. Eso conecta con otro aspecto, el acuerdo de facilidades extendidas que implican reformas de fondo, no toqueteos mínimos.
Esto implica un ajuste que se refleja por ejemplo en disminuir el gasto público. Si fuera parte del FMI les diría que eliminen Aerolíneas Argentinas, no hace falta tener una aerolínea estatal. Porque si hay cielo abierto incrementa la competencia de fondo del mercado aéreo. Esto sería una política de fondo, por supuesto no lo van hacer.
Pero políticas de ajustes, si te requieren extensión de impuestos razonables, no cualquier impuesto, suba de los impuestos razonables, eliminación de los irrazonables como bajar las retenciones, por ejemplo y bajar el gasto público. Pero no quieren hacer eso por ello patean la conversación con el FMI para después de las elecciones. Porque entrar en un programa de ajuste con el Fondo antes de las elecciones, implica perder malamente” finalizo.
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