Una nueva encuesta de Cristina Kirchner para el 2023
Es un estudio nacional de Management & Fit. También preguntó por el juicio de Vialidad.
Mientras Cristina Kirchner decidió meterse de lleno en la trama judicial del atentado fallido en su contra, y designó un equipo de abogados para ser querellante en la causa, el impacto político del ataque sigue siendo evaluado por las consultoras. Ahora, Clarín accedió a una nueva encuesta nacional que midió cómo se vieron afectadas su imagen y su potencial de votos para 2023.
El estudio es de Management & Fit, una firma muy insertada en el mundo de la política, y que tiene como clientes a los gobiernos de Córdoba, Santa Fe y Entre Ríos. Del 2 al 13 de septiembre, hizo un relevamiento de 2.200 casos en todo el país. Presentó los resultados con +/- 2,1% de margen de error.
En el arranque del sondeo, la firma que conduce la analista Mariel Fornoni repite la medición de variables de coyuntura política y económica. Principal conclusión: se mantiene (y en algunos casos, se oscurece) el balance en rojo para el Gobierno nacional.
– El 64,1% dice que su situación económica es peor o mucho peor que hace un año.
– El 63,7% (récord negativo desde que asumieron los Fernández), cree que la situación empeorará en los próximos meses.
– El 73,2% (también récord negativo) desaprueba la gestión del Presidente.
La imagen de Cristina en Nación, Provincia y Ciudad
Antes de preguntar por el impacto del atentado, M&F presenta las tablas de imágenes de los principales dirigentes. Y allí pueden verse tres números centrales de la valoración de la vicepresidenta, en Nación, Provincia y Ciudad de Buenos Aires.
En los tres casos el balance es negativo:
– En Nación, combina 21,1% a favor y 64,6% en contra (diferencial – 35,6 puntos).
– En Provincia, tiene + 34,6% y – 58,8% (diferencial – 24,2).
– En Ciudad, suma + 25,4% y – 70,6% (diferencial – 45,2).
Después el estudio deja una pregunta abierta: «¿Cree que la imagen de Cristina Kirchner en la sociedad argentina…?». El resultado es parejo, con leve saldo en contra.
– El 37% cree que se mantendrá igual.
– El 29,2% cree que empeorará.
– El 23,3% cree que mejorará.
Esta relativa paridad no es buena para Cristina, porque, como se vio previamente, sus números de imagen vienen entre regular y mal.
El impacto en los votos
Pero además, la encuesta se mete en el escenario electoral. Con un planteo abierto similar al anterior, pero enfocado en las urnas: «Pensando en la elección a presidente del 2023, ¿cree que lo sucedido…?». Aquí también hay paridad, pero con pequeño saldo a favor para la vice.
– El 34,8% cree que la intención de voto de Cristina Kirchner se mantendrá igual.
– El 27,6% considera en cambio que el ataque hará que aumente la intención de voto.
– Mientras que el 24,3% considera que se reducirá.
¿Culpable o inocente?
Por último, vinculado al juicio por la supuesta corrupción en la obra pública, que está en etapa de alegatos de las defensas (a Cristina le toca la semana próximo), la consultora indaga sobre la presunción de inocencia o culpabilidad de la vicepresidenta.
El resultado, proporción 2 a 1 en contra, refleja bastante la imagen general que tiene la gente (2 negativos por cada 1 positivo).
– El 62,5% cree que Cristina es culpable, debe ser condenada y privada de su libertad.
– El 27,7% cree lo contrario: que es inocente y debe ser sobreseída.
En todos los casos, el porcentaje se completa con los «no sabe».
Mirada de analista
A pedido de Clarín, Fornoni analizó los principales datos de la encuesta de M&F:
– «La opinión pública tiene un veredicto, tanto para la causa de Vialidad, como lo que ha pasado con el atentado. Y esto es independiente de lo que vaya a decir la Justicia. En temas de corrupción, 6 de cada 10 creen que Cristina es culpable. Y esto tiene que ver con la grieta en la que estamos sumergidos».
– «Si vos lo segmentás por voto, el 95% de los que no votaron al Frente de Todos creen que es culpable, mientras que el 74% de los que votaron al actual oficialismo consideran que es inocente. Esto marca fuertemente el tema de la grieta y algo parecido pasa con el intento de asesinato contra la vicepresidenta».
– «Cuatro de cada 10 duda de la situación, y los que más dudan son aquellos que no siguen al oficialismo. Creo que Cristina en este caso, con lo del atentado, lo que consiguió es centralidad política, en los medios. Cuando uno mide ahora quién tiene el poder en el Gobierno, los números son abrumadores a favor de ella».
– «Con lo cual le va a ser muy difícil despegarse de este gobierno para la próxima elección, tal como parecía que ella era opositora de Alberto Fernández. Pero, más alla de la centralidad que le dio el ataque, lo que no se ve es que haya mejorado su imagen. Tiene 65 puntos de negativa aproximadamente a nivel nacional».
– «Esta Cristina hablando de los medios, la Justicia y la oposición, y hablando poco de lo que le importa a la gente, como la inflación; o como pasó durante la pandemia, cuando también estuvo ausente, me parece que no la han ayudado y eso será difícil de revertir».
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Я оцениваю тщательность и точность, с которыми автор подошел к составлению этой статьи. Он привел надежные источники и представил информацию без преувеличений. Благодаря этому, я могу доверять ей как надежному источнику знаний.
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Эта статья является примером качественного исследования и профессионализма. Автор предоставил нам широкий обзор темы и представил информацию с точки зрения эксперта. Очень важный вклад в популяризацию знаний!
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