Wallberg aseveró que la crisis actual se debe a «la falta de un plan claro en el Gobierno y de una estructura de poder «
Por Martín Dzienczarski
El economista Gustavo Wallberg se refirió al alza de las cotizaciones del dólar en las últimas semanas y apuntó a la falta de un plan claro en el Gobierno nacional. «(Esta situación de las últimas semanas) es un poco una muestra de la falta de un plan claro en el Gobierno y de una estructura de poder clara en el Gobierno. Tengo, por cierto, mis ideas preferidas sobre el poder y su funcionamiento, pero sean preferidas o no, sí resulta claro que si hay un plan de gobierno coherente y una estructura de mando coherente, las cosas estarían mejor sin importar el rumbo de ese plan de poder. Estarían mejor las cosas porque habría un panorama claro», expuso el economista y docente universitario.
Consultado sobre el alza en el precio del dólar y las medidas del Gobierno nacional, Wallberg analizó algunas causas de esta situación: «lo que vemos actualmente no es simplemente si hay o no roces entre (el presidente) Alberto (Fernández) y (la vicepresidenta) Cristina (Fernández), es todo el funcionamiento del Estado debido a los cruces entre los grupos. Que Martín Guzmán no pueda tomar una medida porque un subsecretario se le insubordina, es inaceptable, cuando intentaba avanzar con la segmentación de tarifas. Esto es una muestra de cómo no está organizado el gobierno». Y agregó: «A finales del mes pasado se notó esa avalancha de dólares que terminó en los saltos de las cotizaciones. Por ejemplo, el rumor o algunas conductas consistentes de que el Gobierno podía reestructurar la deuda en pesos, que debían ser cifras billonarias, y que para evitar ese impacto sobre el dólar y los precios se la iba a reestructurar. Bueno, por las épocas del rumor, un banco estatal se desprendió de títulos públicos que ajustaban por inflación, los apuntados, y la cotización se fue al diablo. Esa fue la señal: si un banco del estado se desprende de títulos del estado, debe saber algo más, debe ser señal de que saben que no se pagará la deuda. Ahí empezó una carrera para desprenderse de títulos públicos. Con ese dinero se compraron dólares, entonces a la par de la caída de títulos públicos, hubo un aumento de los tipos de cambio. A eso se suma la inestabilidad de Guzmán, el cambio del ministro, la falta de un programa de economía de la nueva ministra -que es entendible porque recién asume y no tuvo tiempo de delinear decisiones de fondo aún- y sumado al cobro del aguinaldo, derivó en esta situación que vivimos en estas últimas dos semanas».
Respecto a la inflación, que de acuerdo a las mediciones del INDEC lleva un 36% de variación en el primer semestre, Wallberg apuntó a que la solución es tener «responsabilidad en la emisión de dinero y también en las cuentas públicas». «La inmensa mayoría de los países del mundo no tienen problemas de inflación porque han entendido que es un problema donde lo monetario va de la mano de lo fiscal. Cada país es diferente y lo busca de manera diferente, con sus propios tironeos políticos, pero lo buscan con medidas de shock o graduales, pero siempre la solución ha sido responsabilidad fiscal y en las cuentas públicas», agregó el economista, repasando las medidas tomadas en los ciclos económicos tras las crisis de hiperinflación en 1989 y tras la crisis de 2001-2002.
Respecto a la deuda que mantiene el país con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Wallberg recordó la postura asumida durante la presidencia de Nicolás Avellaneda (1874-1880): «en su momento, cuando Avellaneda fue presidente, hubo una crisis de deuda con gran desconfianza de pago. Avellaneda dijo pues que el país iba a honrar el crédito sobre el hambre y la sed de los argentinos. Las deudas se pagan, porque dar la señal de ser responsables nos permitirá resurgir. La recuperación fue prácticamente inmediata entonces, con otras características del mundo, con un sacrificio estatal y sin subir impuestos. Ahora estamos frente a un escenario de endeudamiento, y las deudas deben pagarse. La deuda tomada con el FMI no fue prudente, fue una apuesta que le salió mal a Macri, porque el perfil de deuda implicaba enormes desembolsos en la siguiente gestión. Él apostó a que sería reelegido y con esa señal, podría reprogramarla, cosa que no ocurrió. No pagar la deuda, sin embargo, hubiera sido sin lugar a dudas una crisis mucho peor», expuso.
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