Economia

Argentina volvió a registrar en marzo la segunda inflación más alta de América Latina

El resultado oficial, que se conocerá la semana próxima, supera al conjunto de un grupo muy relevante de países de la región; los analistas prevén un piso del 3,5% en promedio para los próximos meses.

La Argentina volvió a registrar en marzo la segunda inflación más alta de América Latina, con una tasa mensual que superó a la del conjunto de los países más importantes de la región.

Cuando el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec) confirme el jueves 15 la variación del promedio de los precios al consumidor del mes pasado, la inflación habrá superado el 11% en los primeros tres meses del año. Los consultores privados estiman que terminó en torno del 4%, aunque el número final podría estar arriba, con una tendencia similar en abril.

La inflación en América Latina en marzo
Infografía de Marcelo RegaladoLa inflación en América Latina en marzo Infografía de Marcelo Regalado

Este 4% solo fue superado por el 9,1% registrado en Venezuela, según el Observatorio de Finanzas de ese país, que atraviesa una situación de hiperinflación crónica. En los últimos 12 meses llegó a 3.687% según el IVF y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) proyecta que terminará en el 5.500% a fin de año.

Brasil registró una tasa del 1,04% el mes pasado y del 6,2% en los últimos 12 meses. Los analistas que participan de Latinfocus proyectan que terminará con una suba de precios del 4%. En México fue del 0,8% en marzo y del 4,6% en el último año, mientras que se proyecta el 3,7% para fin de año.

En Uruguay, ascendió a 0,6% en marzo y al 3,1% en 12 meses; se estima que terminará el año en 7,3%; para Perú, fue del 0,7% en marzo y del 2,6% en 12 meses; concluiría en 2% en diciembre, mientras que estas cifras en el caso de Paraguay fueron leve deflación del -0,1%, 2,04% y 3%, respectivamente.

En el caso de Ecuador, el registro del mes pasado llegó al 0,18%, con una deflación del 0,8% en 12 meses y una proyección para este año del 0,9 por ciento; en Bolivia, las cifras fueron: -0,1%, 1,1% y 2,2%, respectivamente.

En tanto, en Chile llegó al 0,4% en marzo, al 2,9% en un año y terminaría en 3,1% este año, mientras que en Colombia el dato previo fue del 0,5% y del 1,5% en 12 meses; se estima que ascenderá al 2,7% en diciembre próximo.

Con estas cifras, la Argentina volverá a terminar otro año en un cómodo segundo lugar después de Venezuela en la región y una posición en el top ten, como en los últimos años.

Señales para abril

Según el estudio Eco Go que dirige Marina Dal Poggetto, “en lo que va del año, la dinámica de precios se encuentra desacoplada del ritmo de devaluación; mientras los precios avanzaron un 11,9% en el año el tipo de cambio se movió un 10,2% y se desacelera en el margen (2,3% en marzo) marcando un claro sendero de apreciación del tipo de cambio real”.

“En lo que va del año, la dinámica de precios se encuentra desacoplada del ritmo de devaluación” (Dal Poggetto)

“Más allá del ancla tarifaria y de la decisión de pisar el freno en el ritmo del crawling peg, los precios siguen de largo por la filtración de la brecha cambiaria, el impacto de las restricciones a las importaciones y principalmente por aumentos autorizados en rubros regulados como prepagas, telefonía y combustibles, subas que se busca concentrar en los primeros meses del año”.

Inflación de marzo
fuente: Eco GoInflación de marzo fuente: Eco Go

“El programa, vigente desde marzo pasado presentó desde entonces dos ajustes de precios: ambos de entre 4% y 9%, uno en julio y el último en octubre pasados. El impacto sobre el índice de liberar los precios de los productos congelados es innegable, pero mantenerlos congelados resulta insostenible en un contexto en el que la dinámica de costos se encuentra en ascenso”, señaló el informe.

Y agrega el análisis de la consultora de marras: “En la actualidad, amortiguar la inflación incrementa la inflación futura. Pese a los controles, la inflación en alimentos permanece elevada, traccionada por los alimentos no controlados (productos frescos) carnes, frutas y verduras, al igual que por los productos deslistados de Precios Máximos”.

Eco Go estimó que la inflación general fue del 4,2% el mes pasado, del 11,9% desde enero y del 39,7% en 12 meses. En cuanto al rubro de alimentos y bebidas, llegó al 4,3 en marzo y al 48,8% en el último año, según esta medición.

En la primera semana de abril, según Eco Go, la suba de alimentos y bebidas fue del 2,1%, con una “aceleración del 1,5% en el margen y un incremento del 4,2% al compararse contra la primera semana de marzo”. El informe advirtió que “en el corto plazo los precios siguen de largo mientras el Banco Central apunta a desacelerar el ritmo de devaluación al 1,5% mensual, al mismo tiempo que la inflación mensual proyectada se ubica en la zona del 3,5% a 4 por ciento”.

“Los aumentos administrados en los rubros regulados presionan al alza los precios, postergando así una desaceleración en la nominalidad de la economía y complicando los objetivos en materia de precios para los próximos meses”, resaltó Eco Go.

Por su parte, Guido Lorenzo, director de LCG contó que su relevamiento de precios terminó en marzo arriba del 4% y que en abril apunta al 3,5%, “un piso que parece difícil de perforar” para los próximos meses.

“Abril apunta al 3,5%, “un piso que parece difícil de perforar” para los próximos meses” (Lorenzo)

En el caso del precio de los alimentos, LCG registró una suba del 1,3% en la primera semana de este mes. “El índice de alimentos y bebidas presentó una inflación mensual promedio de 4,6% en las últimas 4 semanas y 5% medida punta a punta en las mismas semanas. Estos niveles de precios dejan un arrastre de 3,6% para lo que queda del mes de abril”, informó LCG.

Por estas razones, para Camilo Tiscornia la inflación terminará este año en el 44,5%, aunque otros consultores creen que llegará al 46%, muy lejos de la pauta oficial del 29% fijada por el Ministerio de Economía en el Presupuesto del corriente año.

FUENTE: INFOBAE

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