EconomiaNacionales

Aseguran que la inflación no bajará del piso de 6 por ciento mensual

Son relevamientos y estimaciones de las consultoras privadas. Los rumores de un posible congelamiento de precios podrían generar subas preventivas.

La falta de “anclas”, la aceleración de los precios de los alimentos y la suba del dólar ponen una vara muy alta para lograr que la inflación descienda del piso del 6% mensual que viene registrado en los últimos meses. Los analistas de las principales consultoras que miden la suba de los precios estiman que difícilmente pueda bajar de esos niveles en lo que queda del año. Los datos de septiembre que acaba de publicar el Indec marcaron un 6,2% mensual y un acumulado de 83% en los últimos doce meses.

Una aceleración de los precios de los alimentos en la primera semana de octubre encendió todas las alarmas. La semana próxima, la Secretaría de Comercio llevará adelante una serie de reuniones con los CEOs de las principales empresas alimenticias para negociar un posible nuevo programa. Se habló de precios congelados -especialmente con las empresas que exportan- una versión que aun no fue confirmada oficialmente pero que ya generó alerta en las empresas. El ministro de Economía Sergio Massa dice que no habrá congelamiento.

Según los datos más recientes de la consultora LCG, en la segunda semana de octubre la suba de precios de los alimentos promedió 1,63%

Según los datos más recientes de la consultora LCG, en la segunda semana de octubre la suba de precios de los alimentos promedió 1,63%, lo que significa una desaceleración de 1,2 puntos porcentuales respecto a la primera semana del mes donde había ascendido a 2,8 por ciento.

“El índice de alimentos y bebidas presentó una inflación mensual del 8,3% promedio en las últimas cuatro semanas y 8,6% punta a punta en el mismo período”, señalaron desde la consultora.

Por su parte, la consultora EcoGo pronosticó una inflación de 6,6% para octubre y de 101,9% para el cierre del año. En el arranque del mes, según su relevamiento, registraron una variación de 1,7% de los precios de los alimentos con respecto a la semana previa. “Con este dato y considerando una proyección de variación del 1,4% para las semanas restantes, la inflación de alimentos consumidos en el hogar en octubre alcanzaría el 7,4% mensual (versus 7,3% en septiembre)”, explicaron.

El 6,6% estimado para la inflación de octubre se ubicaría está impulsado tanto por el arrastre del mes de septiembre (3,6%) como por la suba en precios y servicios regulados, donde destacan aumentos en prepagas (11,53%), tarifas de luz (18,2%) y agua (10%), empleadas domésticas (7,5%), telefonía, internet y televisión (19,8%) y combustibles (6% promedio), entre otros.

Consultoras estiman inflación de alimentos por encima del 7% mensual para octubre. REUTERS/Agustin MarcarianConsultoras estiman inflación de alimentos por encima del 7% mensual para octubre.

“Vimos una aceleración de precios de alimentos, que por suerte está contenida por un menor avance de los precios de la carne vacuna, con una mayor oferta por sequía, alimentación más cara y descarte. Además es factible que las empresas apliquen alguna suba adicional, teniendo en cuenta de que se habla de un plan de congelamiento”, indicó Sebastián Menescaldi, socio de la consultora.

El 6,6% estimado para la inflación de octubre se ubicaría está impulsado tanto por el arrastre del mes de septiembre (3,6%) como por la suba en precios y servicios regulados

El economista Martín Vauthier de la consultora Anker señaló que la dinámica de la inflación en estos niveles altos se vuelve difícil de predecir. “Es muy difícil que la inflación pueda bajar significativamente en el corto plazo. Si se avanzara en un programa de estabilización implicaría una consolidación fiscal mas rápida, un ajuste de tarifas más fuerte que lo anunciado y un salto del tipo de cambio oficial que tendría un impacto sobre los alimentos y bienes de la canasta básica, que están valuados a tipo de cambio oficial. Incluso un programa de estabilización creíble tendría un efecto de aceleración de la inflación en el corto plazo, más allá de que si es exitoso a mediano plazo permitiría una baja en la inflación y la brecha cambiaria”, aclaró.

El Gobierno está en una encerrona: no avanzar con un programa de estabilización y seguir administrando el corto plazo con restricciones a la demanda de divisas también implica un piso de inflación alto para los próximos meses, estimó Vauthier.

El Gobierno lanzó la semana pasada una nueva versión de Precios Cuidados con subas por debajo de la inflación (Maximiliano Luna)El Gobierno lanzó la semana pasada una nueva versión de Precios Cuidados con subas por debajo de la inflación (Maximiliano Luna)

“En ese sentido, la política apuesta a que la inflación no se siga acelerando manteniendo el crawling peg (devaluación progresiva y administrada) en los niveles actuales. Después de haber acumulado reservas, si la inflación baja más en los próximos meses a la zona de 5,5% sería posible con una caída en la demanda, con un margen para trasladar a precios más limitado”, indicó el economista.

Con todo, los analistas consultados coinciden en que los rumores de los últimos días sobre congelamiento de precios no ayudan y pueden incluso generan subas preventivas. “Los anuncios de congelamiento nunca son positivos porque siempre en alguna medida pueden generar algún comportamiento de adelanto en subas de precios. Algo así sucedió cuando Alberto Fernández hace algunos meses anunció la ‘guerra contra la inflación’ y hubo muchos aumentos preventivos. Si el merado empieza darle entidad a esos rumores claramente no son positivos”, dijo Vauthier.

Camilo Tiscornia, de la consultora C&T, también advirtió que los alimentos vienen subiendo fuerte. Según sus proyecciones, la inflación de octubre y de los meses siguientes apunta a más de 6% y el año cerrará en torno al 100%. “Sube todo, no solo alimentos. El dólar oficial sube al 6% y 7% por mes. La inflación no va a estar lejos de eso”, aseguró el economista.

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