En qué provincias debería irle bien al FdT para garantizarse el quórum propio en Diputados
Según las estimaciones de parlamentario.com, es imposible que el oficialismo alcance por sí solo el número clave de 129 bancas propias, y lo más probable es que tampoco llegue con aliados. A menos que tenga resultados más positivos que lo estimado incluso en distritos donde es seguro que perderá. Detalle de cada distrito.
El Gobierno se ha puesto como objetivo alcanzar un porcentaje superior al 40% de los votos en todo el país y un 42% o más en la provincia de Buenos Aires, con el fin de acceder al objetivo central oficialista de esta elección: tener el quórum propio en la Cámara de Diputados. Un ámbito clave en el que durante los primeros dos años de gestión de Alberto Fernández quedaron encallados los proyectos más controvertidos impulsados por el oficialismo.
Es el precio que paga esta administración por ser solo primera minoría en esa Cámara. A diferencia del Senado, donde todos los proyectos que no requieran los 2/3 de los votos tienen garantizada su aprobación. Y así salieron prestamente aprobados en el Senado esas iniciativas que luego quedaron frenadas en Diputados, cosa que llevó en su momento al senador Oscar Parrilli a expresar un fuerte reproche durante una sesión porque durmieran el sueño de los justos en la otra cámara.
Puntualmente hay dos proyectos en los que el kirchnerismo tiene particular interés y que fueron frenados por la oposición en pleno: la reforma judicial y, sobre todo, la del Ministerio Público Fiscal. Incluso el tratamiento de la ley de emergencia Covid fue postergado una y otra vez porque tampoco estaban los votos para su aprobación, y ningún oficialismo puede arriesgarse a perder una votación.
Respecto de los bloques “amigos”, el FdT sabe que contará siempre con los tres misioneros, y casi siempre con los dos de Juntos Somos Río Negro y el o la del Movimiento Popular Neuquino.
Ese 40% a nivel nacional y 42% en la provincia es lo que dejaría conforme al Gobierno nacional, según se expresa en el Manual de Campaña cuyos detalles trascendieron los últimos días. Porque se ha instalado que ese es el porcentaje que le abriría al Gobierno las puertas del quórum propio en la Cámara que no alcanza a controlar. Aunque nada es tan lineal: llegar al número preciado de diputados necesarios para el oficialismo es una empresa complicada, que impone un ejercicio muy preciso para establecer en qué distritos sería posible hacer la diferencia necesaria que garantice alcanzar ese número de diputados para que el oficialismo deje de lado definitivamente las preocupaciones por los próximos dos años.
En síntesis, no hay un porcentaje establecido a nivel nacional que tranquilice o altere al Gobierno: puede aproximarse al número mágico -mas no llegar- mejorando resultados en provincias adversas.
El jefe del interbloque de Juntos por el Cambio en Diputados, Mario Negri, le puso número a esa prevención: “Estamos a 7 bancas de que Cristina se quede con todo”, graficó recientemente. Porque en rigor, el Frente de Todos lo que necesita es una decena más de votos que los que tiene en la actualidad, pero el propio diputado cordobés recordó que hacerse de los tres votos restantes es tarea sencilla para cualquier oficialismo.
117 ha sido el número en el que se plantó el Frente de Todos a lo largo de la gestión de Alberto Fernández. Porque esos son los votos propios con que cuenta, en parte por responsabilidad propia –José Ignacio De Mendiguren estuvo todo este tiempo de licencia, para evitar que en su lugar asumiera un opositor-, y Sergio Massa cuenta para el quórum, mas no vota, salvo que haya que desempatar. Esta última semana el número formal de diputados del Frente de Todos subió a 120, al sumar finalmente a Eduardo “Bali” Bucca, quien de todas maneras dejará su banca a fin de año. El exintendente de Bolívar fue una de las “ruedas de auxilio” con las que contó todo este tiempo el Gobierno nacional en la Cámara baja. Presidía el interbloque Federal, una bancada de 11 miembros que solía colaborar con el oficialismo. Pero no siempre, y sobre todo no en las leyes más controversiales. Hablamos de los 4 diputados de Córdoba Federal, los 3 de Consenso Federal, los 2 justicialistas y los monobloquistas Luis Contiggiani y Enrique Estévez.
Mario Negri le puso número a esa prevención: “Estamos a 7 bancas de que Cristina se quede con todo”, graficó recientemente.
Con los que el oficialismo sí contó prácticamente siempre fue con los miembros del interbloque Unidad Federal para el Desarrollo. Conocidos como “Los Ramones”, por el liderazgo que ejercía allí el mendocino José Luis Ramón, quien terminó blanqueando esa relación al filo del cierre de listas, cuando se sumó al oficialismo, mas sin lograr mechar su nombre en la lista para renovar.
De esos seis miembros solo dos de ellos continuarán en sus bancas. Hay además dos bloques con los que el oficialismo ha contado muchas veces: el de Acción Federal (2 diputados) y la neuquina Alma Sapag. De esos tres, solo el riojano Felipe Alvarez continúa hasta 2023.
Cómo podría llegar a festejar el Frente de Todos
Detallados los aliados con los que contó hasta ahora el oficialismo, habría que considerar que, como están las cosas y analizando los resultados de las últimas dos elecciones, le será imposible al Frente de Todos alcanzar el número de diputados suficiente para tener quórum propio, aunque contando posibles aliados quedaría a las puertas del mismo.
Pero el Gobierno podría superar ese número en caso de tener mejores resultados -nada extraordinario- en Ciudad de Buenos Aires y Córdoba, donde podría sumar dos diputados propios más (uno en cada distrito). Y podría tocar el cielo con las manos si lograra imponerse en distritos ajenos como Corrientes y Jujuy, y mejorar un poco su performance en Tucumán. Podría sumar así tres miembros más para la bancada oficialista.
En caso de suceder estas dos alternativas, la bancada propia podría llegar a ser de 127 diputados. Sin contar a los eventuales aliados.
52 diputados renueva el Frente de Todos.
60 diputados son los que debe renovar Juntos por el Cambio.
120 diputados tiene actualmente el bloque oficialista.
115 son los diputados que integran el interbloque Juntos por el Cambio.
Respecto de los bloques “amigos”, el FdT sabe que contará siempre con los tres misioneros, y casi siempre con los dos de Juntos Somos Río Negro y el o la del Movimiento Popular Neuquino. Posiblemente también con el riojano Felipe Alvarez, exCambiemos, aunque éste no ha mostrado nunca todas sus cartas.
Según los cálculos realizados por parlamentario.com basados en las últimas dos elecciones y las expectativas en cada provincia, el oficialismo podría perder dos bancas en la provincia de Buenos Aires, pero sumaría una en Mendoza, Salta, Santa Cruz y probablemente en Chaco. Además de la segura obtención de un escaño por parte de Juntos Somos Río Negro, a expensas de Juntos por el Cambio.
La principal oposición, según las estimaciones, estaría alcanzando una banca más de las que arriesga, sumando así 61 escaños, que con los que tienen mandato hasta 2023 elevaría el número del interbloque a 115.
Veamos ahora en cada distrito cómo es que llegamos a las conclusiones que hemos detallado.
Provincia por provincia
BUENOS AIRES
Luego de que el bloque oficialista sumara a “Bali” Bucca, el Frente de Todos arriesga en esta elección 17 de las 35 bancas en disputa en el principal distrito del país. Juntos por el Cambio alcanzó en 2017 15 bancas, pero uno de esos diputados, Pablo Ansaloni, se fue de Cambiemos cuando perdieron la elección. En 2017 el entonces oficialismo consiguió un 42,15% de los votos, en tanto que Unidad Ciudadana se alzó con 13 bancas a partir del 36.28% obtenido. El massismo, que fue a la elección bajo el nombre de 1País cosechó 4 escaños, producto del 11,03% alcanzado.
En la elección de 2019 el Frente de Todos se alzó nada menos que con 19 bancas, producto de un hoy impensado 52,64%. Juntos por el Cambio cosechó un 37,77% que le valió 14 escaños. Esto es: la principal oposición tiene prácticamente garantizado mantener las bancas que arriesga, mientras que si el FdT alcanzara el porcentaje que se ha puesto como meta conseguiría 15 bancas, dos menos que las que expone.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (17): Claudia Alicia Bernazza, Eduardo Bucca, Walter Correa, José Ignacio De Mendiguren, Héctor Fernández, Marcelo Koenig, Mónica Macha, Leopoldo Moreau, Carlos Ortega, Nicolás Rodríguez Saá, Laura Russo, María Liliana Schwindt, Vanesa Siley, Mirta Tundis, Romina Uhrig, Fernanda Vallejos y Hugo Yasky.
Juntos por el Cambio (14): Juan Aicega, Hernán Berisso, Adriana Cáceres, Marcela Campagnoli, Javier Campos, Carlos Alberto Fernández, Ezequiel Fernández Langan, Héctor Flores, Martín Nicolás Medina, Josefina Mendoza, María Graciela Ocaña, María Carla Piccolomini, Fabio Quetglas y Natalia Soledad Villa.
Otros (4): Jorge Sarghini, Pablo Miguel Ansaloni, Juan Carlos Giordano y Mónica Leticia Schlotthauer.
CATAMARCA
Hay tres bancas en juego aquí y un resultado cantado: dos serán para el Frente de Todos y la restante para Juntos por el Cambio. Así sucedió en 2017, cuando el Frente Justicialista para la Victoria sumó un 47,84%, contra el 41,86 del Frente Cívico y Social Cambiemos.
En 2019, el Frente de Todos arrasó con un 61,32% y Juntos por el Cambio logró apenas un 33,84, pero así y todo el reparto de las dos bancas en disputa fue equitativo.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Silvana Micaela Ginocchi y Dante Edgardo López Rodríguez.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Eduardo Brizuela del Moral.
CHACO
Esta provincia puede llegar a ser clave para el Gobierno. Hay 4 bancas en disputa en la provincia donde gobierna Jorge Capitanich. En 2017 fue 2 a 2. En esa elección Cambiemos ganó con el 41,79%, contra el 39,62% del Frente Chaco Merece Más. Pero el peronismo esa vez había ido separado, pues Unidad Ciudadana cosechó un 10,76%. En cambio en 2019 el Frente de Todos unido se alzó con una cómoda victoria por el 56,70%, reuniendo JxC esa vez un 36,45%. Había esa vez tres bancas en disputa y el reparto fue 2 a 1.
Ahora bien, la comparación que conviene hacer es la de 2013, cuando también se ponían en juego cuatro bancas. Esa vez el Frente para la Victoria obtuvo 59,32% y la Alianza Unión por Chaco 36,19. Tres diputados fueron para el peronismo y uno para la oposición, por lo que ese es el diagnóstico que hemos calculado en este trabajo: 3 a 1.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Juan Mosqueda y Elda Pértile.
Juntos por el Cambio (2): Aída Ayala y Alicia Terada,.
CHUBUT
En esas provincias donde solo hay dos bancas en disputa, no hay mucho que analizar. Es el caso de Chubut en esta elección, donde la elección fue muy pareja en 2017 con el peronismo dividido, y Chubut Para Todos se quedó con una banca con el 33,23% Cambiemos con la otra, con su 31,16%. En 2019 el resultado fue 53,45% para el Frente de Todos y 32,29% para JxC y esa vez el reparto fue 2 a 1. Ahora se espera que se repartan nuevamente las dos bancas en juego.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Rosa Rosario Muñoz.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Gustavo Menna.
CIUDAD AUTONOMA DE BUENOS AIRES
Después de provincia de Buenos Aires, CABA es la que más diputados pone en juego. Aquí el que lleva las de perder es, paradójicamente, el amplio favorito. Pasa que Juntos por el Cambio arriesga 10 bancas que obtuvo en 2017, cuando la lista de Vamos Juntos se alzó con 8 escaños, producto de su 50,98%, mientras que la lista de Evolución, que motorizaba Martín Lousteau cosechó un 12,30% que le valieron dos bancas. Esa vez el kirchnerismo reunió un 21,74%, que le alcanzaron para sumar tres diputados.
En 2019, elección presidencial, Juntos por el Cambio arrasó con un 53,02, que se tradujo en 8 diputados, y esa sería hoy la expectativa a alcanzar en esta elección. El Frente de Todos alcanzó un 32,05% que redundó en 4 bancas. Y ese es el objetivo del Gobierno nacional: alcanzar 4 escaños en esta elección, aunque habría que ver si la lista de Javier Milei alcanza a emular de algún modo lo hecho por Lousteau en 2017, para quedarse con algún escaño y dejar al FdT en tres. Tendría que sumar más que el Frente de Izquierda, que en 2019 se quedó sin nada a pesar de sumar el 6,13%.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (3): Gabriela Cerruti, Carlos Salomón Heller y Gisela Marziotta.
Juntos por el Cambio (10): Ana Carla Carrizo, Álvaro De Lamadrid, Jorge Ricardo Enríquez, Alejandro García, Fernando Adolfo Iglesias, Juan Manuel López, Paula Mariana Oliveto Lago, José Luis Patiño, Carmen Polledo y Facundo Suárez Lastra.
CORDOBA
Esta es otra de las provincias donde el oficialismo es clara minoría, pero podría sumar más de lo que arriesga. Pone en juego un solo escaño, contra 5 de Juntos por el Cambio, que en 2019 sumó un 51,32% y se alzó con 6 bancas. Esa vez el Frente de Todos alcanzó un 22,31% que le sirvió para tener 2 bancas, quedando la restante para Hacemos por Córdoba, que reunió un 17%. Sería el deseo del Frente de Todos emular este año esa elección, pero en este comicio en el que se votan también senadores, Unión por Córdoba buscará hacer una elección como la de 2017, cuando se alzó con un 30,48% de los votos, que equivalieron a tres bancas. Esa vez el kirchnerismo apenas sumó un 9,71% y le alcanzó solo para la banca que hoy expone.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Pablo Carro.
Juntos por el Cambio (5): Brenda Lis Austin, Héctor Baldassi, María Soledad Carrizo, Gabriel Alberto Frizza y Diego Mestre.
Otros (3): Paulo Leonardo Cassinerio, Claudia Gabriela Márquez y Alejandra María Vigo.
CORRIENTES
Esta es otra de las provincias donde gobierna la oposición y se ponen en juego 3 bancas. El ganador se llevará dos. Juntos por el Cambio expone los dos lugares que consiguió en 2017 con el 55,43%. Esa vez Juntos Podemos Más sumó apenas un 25,58% y el Frente Renovador el 14,84.
Pero en 2019 el ganador fue el Frente de Todos, con el 50,98% de los votos. ECO + Juntos por el Cambio tuvo un 44,01%, pero en esa oportunidad se repartían 4 bancas y fueron dos para cada uno. Ahora el favorito es el oficialismo provincial en esta elección en la que también se votan senadores, aunque el Frente de Todos aspira a dar el batacazo. Pero en el cálculo prevemos 2-1 para JxC.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Jorge Antonio Romero.
Juntos por el Cambio (2): Sofía Brambilla y Estela Mercedes Regidor Belledone.
ENTRE RIOS
Aquí también hay un número impar de bancas en disputa (5), con lo que el ganador se quedará con 3. Fue lo que sucedió en 2017, cuando Cambiemos alcanzó el 53,02% de los votos, contra el 37,97% del Frente Justicialista. En 2019 fue mucho más parejo, pero también ganó JxC: 45,72% a 45,20%. Esa vez se repartieron 2 bancas para cada uno.
Hoy el favorito es Juntos por el Cambio, como sucede en toda la franja central del país.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Mayda Cresto y Ana Carolina Gaillard.
Juntos por el Cambio (3): Atilio Francisco Benedetti, Alicia
Fregonese y Jorge Enrique Lacoste.
FORMOSA
Otra provincia donde hay solo dos bancas en juego, que se repartirán el Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio. En 2017, a pesar de la amplitud de la victoria peronista (61,89% a 36,58%), fue 1 a 1.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Gustavo Ramiro Fernández Patri.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Mario Horacio Arce.
JUJUY
Con tres bancas en disputa, Juntos por el Cambio es favorito por ser el gobierno provincial de ese signo. Pero en las provincias del norte nunca se sabe… En 2017 Cambiemos se alzó con 2 bancas, luego de obtener un 51,73%. Esa vez un peronismo dividido apenas cosechó el 19,78%, y se quedó con la restante. Pero en 2019 el Frente de Todos alcanzó un 45,40%, contra el 43,38% de JxC, revirtiendo el reparto.
El Gobierno nacional confía en poder repetir el resultado de 2019, aunque en nuestro cálculo ponemos 2-1 para JxC.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): José Luis Martiarena.
Juntos por el Cambio (2): María Gabriela Burgos y Osmar Antonio Monaldi.
LA PAMPA
No hay ningún misterio en lo que sucederá en La Pampa, con 3 bancas en discusión. En 2017 el Frente Cambiemos perdió apenas por unas décimas, y esa diferencia se tradujo en una banca menos. El resultado esa vez fue 45,42 para el PJ, 45,39 para Cambiemos. En 2019 el FdT ganó por 51,63 a 39,40, pero entonces solo había dos bancas en juego, que se repartieron.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Delú, Melina Aída y Rauschenberger, Ariel.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Maquieyra, Martín.
LA RIOJA
Otra provincia donde no hay misterios, pues se reparten solo dos bancas y será una para cada uno. Cambiemos ganó en 20178 por 44,78 a 44,15, pero en 2019 el FdT lo revirtió 52,18 a 44,73. En esa oportunidad le valió tener un diputado más, pues se repartían tres.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Danilo Adrián Flores.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Julio Enrique Sahad.
MENDOZA
En la provincia cuyana gobernada por el radicalismo hay 5 bancas en juego. Este es otro de los distritos donde el Frente de Todos va claramente de punto, pero así y todo puede sumar más de lo que tiene. Porque en la elección de 2017 se coló el Partido Intransigente, por el que esa vez compitió José Luis Ramón, y con el 17,19% alcanzó una de las cinco bancas en disputa esa vez. A expensas del peronismo, que sumó apenas una, con el 25,38% que obtuvo entonces. Cambiemos ganó entonces tres escaños con el 45,73%.
En 2019 Cambia Mendoza superó el 50% y consiguió la misma cantidad de bancas. El Frente de Todos rozó el 38% y se quedó con 2. Ese sería esta vez el resultado más previsible, con lo que el bloque de Máximo Kirchner ganaría un miembro más, aunque el voto casi siempre lo tuvo con José Luis Ramón.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Omar Chafi Félix.
Juntos por el Cambio (3): Claudia Najul, Luis Alfonso Petri y Federico Raúl Zamarbide.
Otros (1): José Luis Ramón.
MISIONES
Aquí el oficialismo provincial es el que suele imponerse y si bien sus diputados no se suman al bloque de Máximo Kirchner, le votan todo. Es el Frente Renovador de la Concordia, que en las elecciones legislativas hace sus mejores elecciones: en 2017 se impuso con el 42,76% alzándose con dos escaños, quedando el restante para el Frente Cambiemos (33,76).
En las presidenciales de 2019 ganó el Frente de Todos, con el 34,94%, mientras que JxC tuvo 33,58%. El Frente Renovador salió tercero esa vez, con 28,60%.
Todo indica que en esta elección el oficialismo provincial se quedará con dos escaños y el restante será para JxC.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Luis Mario Pastori.
Otros (2): Flavia Morales y Ricardo Wellbach.
NEUQUEN
Hay tres escaños en disputa este año en esta provincia, y tres jugadores que se repartirán las bancas, como sucedió en 2017, cuando Cambiemos se alzó con un 28,21%, el MPN con el 21,41 y Unidad Ciudadana con el 19,36.
En las presidenciales de hace dos años, el Frente de Todos se impuso, con un 36,39% sobre JxC, que sumó 32,70, y ambos se repartieron las dos bancas en disputa entonces. El Movimiento Popular Neuquino obtuvo un 20,76%.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Carlos Alberto Vivero.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): David Pablo Schlereth.
Otros (1): Alma Liliana Sapag.
RIO NEGRO
En esta provincia este año hay dos bancas en discusión y todo indica que Juntos por el Cambio perderá una, por la irrupción del oficialismo provincial, que lleva el nombre de Juntos Somos Río Negro. Ya irrumpió en las elecciones de 2019, cuando se alzó con un 32,05% y quedó segundo y con la tercera banca en disputa. El Frente de Todos se alzó con dos, a partir de sus 45 puntos, mientras que Juntos por el Cambio apenas reunió un 18,98%.
En 2017 al Frente para la Victoria le había ido también muy bien, con el 49,36%, mientras que Cambiemos tuvo una mejor elección, con el 31,99%. Esa vez se repartieron los escaños.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Ayelén Spósito.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Lorena Matzen.
SALTA
En 2017 el peronismo fue dividido y Cambiemos ganó esa elección de tres tercios por 30,25%. El Frente Unidad y Renovación logró un 24,44% y el kirchnerismo el 23,24%. Los tres se repartieron las bancas en juego.
En 2019 el Frente de Todos ganó por el 46,68%, mientras que JxC obtuvo un 34,65%. Había cuatro escaños en disputa que se repartieron de manera equitativa. Ahora, con el peronismo unido y solo tres escaños en juego, lo más probable es que el Frente de Todos se alce con dos y el restante sea para JxC.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Alcira Elsa Figueroa.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Martín Grande.
Otros (1): Andrés Zottos.
SAN JUAN
No habrá imprevistos en San Juan, donde hay en disputa tres escaños. Dos serán para el Frente de Todos, que ya ganó en 2019 54,79% a 38,37%, y uno para JxC. Un resultado muy similar al que se dio en 2017 (53,689 a 31,49).
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Walberto Enrique Allende y Francisco Guevara.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Eduardo Augusto Cáceres.
SAN LUIS
El Frente de Todos confía en quedarse con dos de las tres bancas en juego. Pero el antecedente más reciente no lo favorece. En las presidenciales 2019, cuando el Frente de Todos ganó en la mayoría de los distritos, no lo hizo en San Luis, donde Juntos por el Cambio se impuso 46,67 a 43,87 del Frente de Todos. Pero se repartían entonces dos escaños.
En 2017 en cambio el Frente Unidad Justicialista había ganado 55 a 43.
JxC confía en dar la sorpresa repitiendo el resultado más reciente y con ese objetivo encabezará la lista el exgobernador y actual senador nacional Claudio Poggi. Con todo, hemos calculado la posibilidad de que el Frente de Todos retenga sus dos bancas.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Karim lume Sbodio y Victoria Rosso.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): José Luis Riccardo.
SANTA CRUZ
Desde hace un tiempo la oposición viene ganando las elecciones intermedias en esta provincia, pero el antecedente más reciente muestra una severa derrota, que es lo que hace pensar que aquí el Frente de Todos se quedará con dos de los tres lugares en juego.
En 2019 el FdT consiguió un 62,13%, contra el 29,30% de JxC. En 2017, en cambio, Cambiemos había obtenido un 43,91%, contra el 31,96 del Frente para la Victoria. De los dos diputados que consiguió esa vez, uno se le fue y suele votar con el oficialismo.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Juan Benedicto Vázquez.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Roxana Nahir Reyes.
Otros (1): Antonio José Carambia.
SANTA FE
Otra de las provincias grandes donde Juntos por el Cambio se ilusiona con ganar. Apuesta a retener los cinco diputados que arriesga, con lo que tendría que repetir el resultado de las dos últimas elecciones: en 2017 consiguió 37,80% y en 2019 43,30%, lo que en ambos casos le valió cinco escaños.
El Frente Justicialista obtuvo un 25,90% en 2017, que le reportó tres diputados, en tanto que el Frente Progresista Cívico y Social se quedó con el diputado restante con su 14,63%.
En 2019, Juntos por el Cambio subió a 43,30, mientras que el Frente de Todos alcanzó un 42,26%, con lo que sumó cuatro diputados. El socialismo fue socio de Consenso Federal y reunió un 10% que le valió un diputado.
Con nueve escaños en disputa, se espera repetir el resultado de 2017.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (3): Esteban Mateo Bogdanich, Josefina Victoria González y Patricia Mounier.
Juntos por el Cambio (5): Albor Ángel Cantard, Gonzalo Pedro Del Cerro, Luciano Andrés Laspina, María Lucila Lehmann y Gisela Scaglia.
Otros (1): Luis Gustavo Contigiani.
SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO
En esta provincia el oficialismo provincial suele quedarse con todas las bancas en disputa, que aporta luego al bloque Frente de Todos. Juntos por el Cambio sumó en 2017 17 puntos y dos años después, 18, así que el Frente Cívico por Santiago se volverá a quedar sin dudas con los tres diputados en juego este año.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (3): Norma Abdala de Matarazzo, Bernardo José Herrera y María Luisa Montoto.
TIERRA DEL FUEGO
Con dos diputaciones en juego, no hay mucho misterio en esta provincia en la que en 2019 ganó el Frente de Todos con 38,67% y JxC logró un 23,68%. En 2017 el resultado fue más parejo, con el kirchnerismo imponiéndose por 29,96 puntos contra 29,77 de Cambiemos.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (1): Carolina Yutrovic.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): Héctor Antonio Stefani.
TUCUMAN
Con cuatro bancas en juego, en esta provincia lo más probable es que se las dividan el Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio, como sucedió en 2017, cuando el resultado fue 46,89% contra 32,56%.
En 2019 el resultado fue más holgado para el oficialismo: 55,25 a 32,26, y entonces el reparto fue 3 a 2, pero con un número de bancas en juego par y un oficialismo con serias diferencias entre sí, se augura un reparto equitativo.
Se les vence el mandato a:
Frente de Todos (2): Gladys Medina y Pablo Raúl Yedlin.
Juntos por el Cambio (1): José Manuel Cano.
Otros (1): Beatriz Ávila.
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