Más de siete millones de bolivianos votan este domingo
Para llegar a este día, los bolivianos han tenido que superar la anulación de las elecciones del 20 de octubre de 2019, por denuncias de fraude, la conformación de un gobierno de transición constitucional, el cambio de fecha tres veces consecutivas por el impacto del coronavirus, 12 días de bloqueos de carreteras en agosto por seguidores del partido de Evo Morales, una campaña electoral con brotes de violencia, confrontación hasta en las horas de veda y advertencias de una posible convulsión después de la votación de hoy domingo.
Otra de las novedades tiene relación con la cifra de competidores y la composición de la papeleta electoral. Por primera vez en 18 años, en la boleta no estará la fotografía de Evo Morales como candidato a la Presidencia, ya que se encuentra como asilado político en Argentina, tras su renuncia al Gobierno el 10 de noviembre de 2019, en medio de un levantamiento ciudadano por denuncias de fraude electoral.
Aunque en la papeleta de votación están impresas las figuras de ocho candidatos a la Presidencia, el Tribunal Supremo Electoral confirmó la habilitación oficial de solo cinco aspirantes y organizaciones políticas.
La gran duda es si hay balotaje
Como ocurrió el año pasado, por primera vez en la historia de la democracia boliviana, en esta elección se puede abrir la puerta para un balotaje. Si el que gane no consigue el 50 por ciento más uno de los votos o si no supera el 40 por ciento y una diferencia de 10 puntos respecto al segundo mejor ubicado en la votación, habrá una segunda vuelta programada para el domingo 29 de noviembre.
Hay tres candidatos que disputan con mayor chance los primeros lugares. Luis Arce (MAS), ex ministro de economía del gobierno de Evo Morales, el expresidente Carlos Mesa (CC), que el año pasado consiguió el segundo lugar en las elecciones anuladas por fraude, y Luis Fernando Camacho (Creemos), el nuevo actor de la política boliviana, que el año pasado lideró el movimiento cívico ciudadano que provocó la salida del poder de Morales, después de casi 14 años de mandato.
Los otros dos candidatos con menos posibilidades son Chi Hyung Chu (FPV), el surcoreano nacionalizado boliviano, que en 2019 terminó tercero, y Feliciano Mamani (Panbol), un dirigente sindicalista minero.
Las últimas horas que preceden a la elección han estado marcadas por una fuerte confrontación entre los seguidores de Carlos Mesa y de Luis Fernando Camacho, que se disputan los votos de los electores contrarios al MAS. El propio Evo Morales dijo hace unos días que la división de sus rivales electorales puede favorecer un triunfo del candidato Luis Arce Catacora en la primera vuelta de la votación, con lo que se convertiría en Presidente y con la que conseguiría que el MAS sea la primera fuerza en la Asamblea Legislativa, pero sin los dos tercios que tuvo en años pasados.
Llamados a evitar violencia
Mientras se acentuaron las convocatorias a asistir este domingo a votar con todas las medidas de bioseguridad que exige la pandemia, también se multiplicaron los llamados a votar en paz y a que los actores políticos acaten los resultados electorales.
Otra de las variantes y nueva característica de la nueva elección presidencial boliviana es la presencia de cinco misiones internacionales de observación y de al menos cuatro comitivas invitadas por el MAS a observar los comicios.
La visita de organizaciones afines y de activistas internacionales que tienen simpatía con el partido de Evo Morales elevó la confrontación política con algunos de sus adversarios e, incluso, produjo el viernes pasado un incidente diplomático. Parlamentarios argentinos afines al gobierno de Alberto Fernández se quejaron por haber sido retenidos en el aeropuerto de El Alto por funcionarios de Migración, del gobierno de Añez, que no es hasta ahora reconocido por el presidente de Argentina. Fernández se quejó por este suceso, en tanto que días antes la Cancillería de Bolivia protestó una vez más por lo que consideran una constante «injerencia» del gobierno de Fernández en las elecciones y en la política boliviana.
Diputados argentino contrarios al gobierno de Fernández pidieron mediante una nota al Canciller Felipe Solá que les responda a preguntas sobre el status jurídico de Morales en Buenos Aires y de su posible retorno a Bolivia durante o el día después de las elecciones.
En un acto anterior con sus seguidores, Morales anticipó que si el MAS gana en primera vuelta, al día siguiente retornará a Bolivia por la población de Yacuiba, ubicada en la frontera con Argentina.
Andrónico Rodríguez, dirigente del MAS y candidato al Legislativo por ese partido, advirtió que si el MAS no gana en la votación será por fraude, lo que obligará a retomar el poder en movilizaciones callejeras.
El propio candidato Luis Arce dijo que si Mesa le gana en primera vuelta será por fraude. El candidato de CC respondió que el MAS busca abrir el paraguas. Otros dirigentes del partido de Morales han afirmado que desconfían del Tribunal Electoral y solo acatarán los resultados si no se produce un fraude.
En ese clima tenso, el Gobierno de Jeanine Añez ha deslizado que existen aprestos de convulsión social preparada por el MAS, sobre todo en las regiones donde tiene sus bastiones electorales, que son Chapare, El Alto y el norte de Potosí. Las instituciones encargadas de la seguridad del Estado adelantaron que están listas para responder a cualquier brote de violencia en Bolivia.
El ambiente de tensión ha crecido, lo que motivó en las últimas horas a las misiones de la ONU y de la Unión Europea a emitir comunicados conjuntos con la Iglesia en los que piden votar en paz y respetar los resultados electorales.
Otras misiones como la del Centro Carter y la de la OEA expresaron su confianza en el Tribunal Supremo Electoral y en el proceso boliviano, afectado por la crisis que proviene del año pasado.
Los organismos de observación resaltaron varios ajustes para evitar irregularidades como la renovación de las autoridades, vocales, y funcionarios del Organo Electoral, los cambios tecnológicos para el cómputo electoral y la cadena de custodia del material de la votación.
Debido a la pandemia, la votación tendrá este domingo una hora más de duración, se dividió en dos grupos y horarios para los votantes y se ha reforzado la bioseguridad en los centros habilitados para sufragar. «Esta es la elección más atípica de la Bolivia democrática y la de mayor tensión. Espero que no haya violencia», resumió el analista e historiador Paúl Antonio Coca.
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